Club+of+Rome

=THE CLUB OF ROME =
 * Background and History **


 * Formation**: The Club of Rome is an informal, non-profit organisation comprised of a group of international individual professionals in science, education, economics, industry, and civil services. Through invitation from Accademia dei Lincei, an Italian industrialist, and Alexander King, a Scottish scientist, the small group first gathered in 1968 in Rome to discuss international affairs relating to resource consumption and population growth. At this meeting, each member committed themselves to a year of work in raising awareness to the current issues. Yet since the group's formation in 1968, The Club of Rome has grown profusely in its international network to each continent and generation, in its participants, and in its goals and achievements.


 * Accomplishments**: In 1972, the group published their first work //The Limits to Growth// summarizing their research and presenting their future projection of the world's population, resources, and development. Following, the group continued to widen their international relations and adjust their work to rising issues such as welfare and education. Twenty years later, //Beyond the Limits// was published as an update to their projections and new observations. Currently, the organization is working on a program called //A New Path for World Development// and is involved with over 30 National Associations and includs up to 100 members from over 30 nationalities.

= Beliefs and Theories =

The main interest of the organization is to spread awareness of the fragile relationship and required communication between people, resources and the world's limits. Issues worked upon include population growth, food, resources, pollution, education, economies, and the relationships between these entities. With the aid of a computer graphics programs, they created a series of graphs taking into account such variables and making projections up until the year 2100. Their models are an attempt to understand the complexity of the world's system using past trends to predict the future and apply these prediction to current problems.

The graphs and study led to the following general beliefs which were summarized in //**The Limits to Growth**//: - The combination of population growth and finite resources will eventually result in mass misery. - The problem of high population growth should be sufficient for the world to realize its need for immediate and greater prevention. - Current human trends must be altered and the realization must be reached that the world's limit is approaching. - Current improvement in LEDCs has been made and should continue to be a result of global relationships. - Both long term and short term problems must be foreseen and undertaken. - Inequality is a major problem and also the cause of other dilemmas. - It is the __present__ generation that must undertake these issues, for time is a pressing issue. - The success in defeating these problems relies on all levels, world, national, and individual.

"The Members of the United Nations have perhaps ten years left in which to subordinate their ancient quarrels and launch a global partnership to curb the arms race, to improve the human environment, to defuse the population explosion, and to supply the required momentum to development efforts. If such a global partnership is not forged within the next decade, then I very much fear that the problems I have mentioned will have reached such staggering proportions that they will be beyond our capacity to control." (UN Secretary General U THANT, 1969)



The following 1972 model was developed to predict the world's future in relation to population, resources, resulting food per capita, industrial output per capita, and pollution in 2100. Extrapolations were made based on historical data from 1900 to 1970. The graph shows food, industrial output and population to grow exponentially until the limit of resources forcibly slows the growth and eventually leads to downfall.

Three conclusions from the model made in 1972: (1) If the current trends continue the world will reach its limit within the next 100 years. (2) This downfall can be avoided if we begin __now__ by working towards sustainability with involvement at every level. (3) The sooner the population comes to understand the world's limits proposed by the model and act towards sustainability, the greater the changes we have of success.

The Club of Rome's predictions are presented to be a warning to act quickly. Thus the situation is not only presented, but proposals are made on what actions must be undertaken concerning population control and resource management.

= Beyond the Limits =

In 1992 The Club of Rome published a second book called //Beyond the Limits//, which aimed at verifying and updating their previous claims. Yet when collecting new data and developing new models and projections, several surprising and novice observations were made concerning the world's current situation in relation to its limits. The group acknowledges the efforts of the many communities and individuals working towards improving sustainability, equality, economies, and the environment, yet stated that the world is not only approaching it limits, but has passed them in many resources and pollution. These conclusions, which were reached from the updated and processed data, came as an urgent reminder of the desperate need for even greater action. The Club of Rome suggests that the possibilities for a more sustainable future have narrowed since their last investigation, yet in addition, new options have been opened with the development of new ideas and technology (i.e. recent breakthroughs in solar power).

"The human world is beyond its limits. The present way of doing things is unsustainable. The future, to be viable at all, must be one of drawing back, easing down, healing."

The groups conclusions have thus been strengthened to the following: (1) The world population has already passed the world's limits and if greater efforts are not implemented, will face serious consequences in famine and energy. (2) To avoid such breakdown, two changes must be made: · stronger policies need to be implemented concerning the growth of the population and their consumption · steep decrease in the current consumption of resources and energy (3) To reach a sustainable society, both short and long term goals must be reached. These goals cannot rely fully on technology and increase in output, but must focus on competence and equality in resources and quality of life.

"The conclusions constitute a conditional warning, not a dire prediction. They offer a living choice, not a death sentence. The choice isn't necessarily a gloomy one."

Again, the Club of Rome suggest the success as a reachable possibility, though actions must be undertaken more quickly and to a higher degree. "We think that a transition to a sustainable world is technically and economically possible, maybe even easy, but we also know it is psychologically and politically daunting. So much hope, so many personal identities, so much of modern industrial culture has been built upon the premise of perpetual material growth."

"We think the human race is up to a challenge. We think that a better world is possible, and that the acceptance of physical limits is the first step toward getting there. We see "easing down" from unsustainability not as a sacrifice, but as an opportunity to stop battering against the earth's limits and to start transcending self-imposed and unnecessary limits to human institutions, mindsets, beliefs, and ethics." (Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers).

=Model Limitations= - The model makes predictions based on past trends, which does not take into accound technological development and new possibilities - As the Standard World Model was updated, fallicies were found in the model, which suggests there to be other misjudgements in their current model.

Works Cited

"About Us." __The Club of Rome__. 2008. The Club of Rome. 14 Oct 2008 .

Codrington, Stephen. Planet Geography. 4th ed. Hong Kong: Solid Star Press, 2007.

Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III.The Limits to Growth. '1st ed. London: Pan Books Ltd., 1983.

Meadows, Donella H, Dennis L Meadows, and Jorgen Randers. Beyond the Limits. '1st ed. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 1992.

http://www.mnforsustain.org/meadows_limits_to_growth_30_year_update_2004.htm

www.greatchange.org/ov-simmons,club_of_rome_revisted.pdf