Egypt+H

Members: Andreina Morales, Donald Little, Geoffrey Thomas, Hesham Aly

__**Egypt's Demographic Profile**__
 * ||= 1990 ||= 2000 ||= **2010** ||= 2020 ||= 2030 ||= 2040 ||= 2050 ||
 * CBR (per 1000) ||= N/A ||= 27 ||= **25** ||= 21 ||= 18 ||= 17 ||= 15 ||
 * CDR (per 1000) ||= N/A ||= 5 ||= **5** ||= 5 ||= 5 ||= 6 ||= 7 ||
 * IMR (per 1000) ||= N/A ||= 39 ||= **26** ||= 18 ||= 13 ||= 9 ||= 7 ||
 * MMR (per 100,000) ||= N/A ||= 84 ||= 43 ||= N/A ||= N/A ||= N/A ||= N/A ||
 * LE (years) ||= N/A ||= 69 ||= **72** ||= 75 ||= 77 ||= 79 ||= 80 ||
 * TFR (Child per Woman) ||= N/A ||= 3.5 ||= **3** ||= 2.7 ||= 2.4 ||= 2.3 ||= 2.2 ||
 * DTM Stage ||= N/A (most likely 1) ||= 1 ||= **2** ||= 2 ||= 3 ||= 3 ||= 3 ||
 * Contraception use (%) ||= N/A ||= N/A ||= **61** ||= N/A ||= N/A ||= N/A ||= N/A ||
 * < Population growth rate (%) ||= 2.31 ||= 1.89 ||= 1.83 ||= 1.46 ||= 1.15 ||= 0.89 ||= 0.59 ||

__**Population Pyramids**__







Around the year 2000 C.E. reliable data about Egypt's population started being released to public. The data from those years shows Egypt as a country in stage 2 of the demographic transition model with both high CBR and CDR. Years since have passed and today Egypt's government has managed to lower their infant mortality rate (IMR) and increased the life expectancy (LE). Predictions show that by the year 2050, Egypt will have a stable population but it will continue growing for some more years until the population momentum finally comes to rest. Although the progress has been slow across the years, it is clear that Egypt is advancing through the demographic profile stages and will eventually reach a stable population.

Country Policy
Egypt's Population Policy.

Egypt implements a state-run family planning system. In this system the government tries to introduce people to the concept of family planning and expand condom use and birth control, but does not explore (and even frowns upon) sterilization and abortion. Egypt also aims to use education for women as a means to promote family planning, because around 27% of women decide not to use any kind of contraception. And also to destroy Egyptian cultural myths on child birth. Abortion is only legal in Egypt if the mother's health is in danger. For the past decade Egypt’s government has been trying to lower its fertility rate in many ways. The government has many policies for reducing population growth. The first population aimed to reduce fertility was implemented in 1962. This plan was developed till a third stage was achieved which was implemented in 1984 by a national committee. The third stage of the plan is based on these principals:


 * The right for couples to have access to family planning and be educated about all possible options to allow them to reach the decision that would fit with their beliefs
 * To avoid using sterilization and abortion as methods of family planning
 * The development of education, health and culture for the benefit of the individual
 * It is the governments responsibility to implement the program

Now only 10.7% of women are faced with an unmet need of family planning 60% of married women use contraception to control their families Only 2.2% of the population uses traditional contraception = =

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Predictions
Egypt's Population Program: Assessing 25 Years of Family Planning. Scott Moreland, march 2006.

Egypt is currently in the second stage of demographic transition an as such will continue to have a high population growth rate well into the twenty first century. This is most likely going to change in about 2050 when the birth rate drops to coincide with the declining death rate, at that point Egypt will have spent a great deal of time in stage three and will have almost reached replacement fertility. After reaching replacement fertility, Egypt's population is still likely to grow for the remainder of the twenty first century due to the population momentum factor. The greatest problems that a constantly rising population will give Egypt is in terms of space and population density. Egypt's population is concentrate almost exclusively around the Nile and this is unlikely to decrease anytime in the near future due to migration to urban areas, this will in turn lead to massive problems ranging from pollution, poor urban planing, lack of living space and lack of well developed education for a consistently rising number of children. Egypt lacks a public welfare system for the elderly, however this is not likely to cause any major problems due to the Egyptian cultural tradition that allows for a family's grandparents to live in the same home as their children. This creates an Egyptian cultural system that provides for the elderly without the need for government intervention.

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