Iran

//An Investigation into the Population Policies of //

=The Islamic Republic of Iran =



====//The Islamic Republic of Iran has undergone one of the fastest fertility reductions in the world. A drop in total fertility rate of over 50% in one decade has never been recorded in any Islamic country, nor anywhere else in the world.//==== ====//After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran had no official population policies. However, with high birth rates, an influx of refugee immigrants and declines in infant mortality rates and maternal mortality rates (due to the improvements in health care), the Iraninan population experienced dramatic growth. As the demand for food, education, housing and jobs grew, so did the need for the Iran government to radically change its population policies.//====

=DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW= //2010// || 75.1 million || //2050// || 97.0 million || //(per 1000)// || 19 || //(per 1000)// || 6 || //(per 1000)// || 29 || //(per 100,000)// || 120 || //(number of children)// || 1.8 || //Stage// || third || //(years)// || 71 || //(% of population)// || 74 || //(% of population)// || 56 ||
 * //Total Population//
 * //Total Predicted Population//
 * //Crude Birth Rate//
 * //Crude Death Rate//
 * //Infant Mortality Rate//
 * //Maternal Mortality Rate//
 * //Total Fertility Rate//
 * //Demographic Transition Model//
 * //Life Expectancy//
 * //Traditional Contraception Use//
 * //Modern Contraception Use//

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The population of the Islamic Republic of Iran of 75 million is continuing to grow, however, the population growth rate has drastically declined. It is predicted that Iran will reach a stable population of 95 million by 2050. The population growth has dropped from its all time high of 3.94% in 1986 to 1.31% in 2007. Since the initial 2.33% drop, the population growth rate has fluctuated but still continues to fall. The total fertility rate has decreased from 5.6 children per woman in 1990 to 1.8 in 2010, further supporting the falling population growth rate by 2050. The fall in the total fertility rate caused a fall in the crude birth rate from 39 children per thousand in 1990, to 19 per thousand in 2010. With the raise in life expectancy comes the fall in crude birth rate from 9 per thousand in 1990, to 6 per thousand in 2010. However, the crude birth rate is expected to rise again between 2040 and 2050 when the children of baby boom of the 1970s and 80s begin to die.====== = =

= = = POPULATION PYRAMIDS =

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//1990://
In 1990, the Iranian population was undergoing exponential growth. However, alongside their high total fertility rate and crude birth rate, was a high death rate, as well as a high infant mortality rate. The high fertility rate was also a cause of the low contraceptive use in the country. The low life expectancy age and the large young population was an indication of an expansive population pyramid, as well as a country that is still developing and in the first or second stages of the Demographic Transition Model.

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//2000://
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In the population pyramid of Iran in 2000, the baby boom of the mid-1980s can be clearly seen, as well as the turning point of the country’s pro-natalist policies. The government began focusing on the quality of life of the population, and as a result the life expectancy age rose, the crude birth rate declined in addition to the fall in crude birth rate and total fertility rate.

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//2010://
= =  As the crude death rates continue to fall and life expectancies continue to rise, the start of a stable population is beginning to be seen. The total fertility rate is stabilizing, as health care and the availability of resources improves. However, as the children of the baby boom enter their reproductive years, it is to be seen what happens to the crude birth rate. = = = =

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//2020://
= =  The population continues to stabilize, but it is still increasing. If this is due to the “baby boomers” entering their reproductive years, or if the total population is on the rise again, cannot be determined yet. The death rate continues to fall, and the life expectancy continues to rise, however, the working aged population is larger and the dependency ratio is lower.

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= = = //2050:// = = =  By 2050, if the population follows this prediction, Iran will have almost reached a stable population. With decreasing rates of infant mortality, maternal mortality and deaths, the population will be evening out, caused by continued development and improvements in infrastructure. The country will be heading towards a stationary population growth pyramid and a stage four on the Demographic Transition Model.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =**GOVERNMENT POLICIES**=

The first family planning policy was introduced in 1967 under Shah Reza Pahalvi (a king who tried to modernize Iran) to bring economic growth and to empower womens' right. The government took new measures by reforming divorce laws, providing more jobs for women and recognizing family planning as a pressing human right.

__ **Reversal in 1979 to Pro-Natalist Policy (begining of Islamic Revolution)** __

**Ayatollah Khomeini, Shiite Muslim leader viewed family planning as western practice**. Therefore, he immediately dismantled such a reform and did not advocate for contraception. He saw a large population as an advantage during war with Iraq (1980-1988). During war, Ayatollah called for “soldiers for Islam” and encouraged women to have more children to create “an army of 20 million” **//Consequence://** The strong pro-natalist policy fostered population growth rate to increase over 3%. It caused the population to double in 20 years; 27 million in 1968 to 55 million in 1988. However, it caused the economy to falter due to job shortages. Iran’s main cities became over crowded and polluted. Also, government was unable to meet the demand of the growing population. Simply, Iran’s population was viewed as an obstacle to future development.

__ **Reversal in 1989 to Anti-Natalist Policy** __
Because of the population dispute, Ayatollah was forced to change its policy. He again introduced the subject of birth control. Ayatollah introduced new measures that caused Iran’s total fertility to drop from seven to less than three in 15 years. Such reforms include: 1.) encouraging women to wait three years after the first pregnancy before considering another. 2.) discouraging women younger than 18 or older than 25 to have children and 3.) restricting to the number of children to three. The package also included incorporating research into population, family planning and mother and child health care. By 2000, the Iranian government was able to cover 80% of family planning costs of their population. Religious leaders also actively engaged in campaign for smaller families. Iran was the first country in the region to provide free contraception, such as condoms and the pill, to require both men and women to take a class on modern contraception before officially getting married, and to build government sanctioned condom factory. **//Consequences://**  1) Rising Literacy a. Rate for literacy men rose from 48% in 1970 to 84% in 2000 nearly doubling in 30 years. b. Female literacy rate also rose from 25% in 1970 to 70% today c. School enrollment grew from 60% to 90% 2) Rising National Communication a. By 1996, 70% of rural and 93% of urban households had televisions which allowed family planning information to spread easily

__ **The Reversal in 2006 to Pro-Natalist Policy** __
Current president, Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for more children to be born to increase his country’s population from 70 to 120 million. However, there is increasing criticism that Iran is already suffering from shortages of both jobs and resources. Some researchers fear that new population bomb would only worsen these problems.


 * Hear what they have to say:**

//“I am against saying that two children are enough. Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the capacity for many children to grow in it. It even has the capacity for 120 million people. Westerners have got problems. Because their population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population increases, we will triumph over them.////”// -President Ahmadinejad- //“He [President Ahmadinejad] stresses the necessity of population growth and the triumph of Iran over western governments**,** ignoring the fact that what leads to such triumph is not population size but knowledge, technology, wealth, welfare and security////.”// -The Reformist Etemad-e Melli Newspaper-

These are two video clips from Press TV. Please be aware that Press TV is a state own broadcasting station, and information may have government influence. media type="youtube" key="P-0lu4mZ9wI?fs=1" height="346" width="432" align="left" media type="youtube" key="78_yTzSqOEs?fs=1" height="345" width="432"

=PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE=

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As can be seen by both graphs above, the population of the Islamic Republic of Iran is growing, yet at a dramatically slower rate. The population growth rate has fallen, and the main reasons behind this fall are:

1. Urbanization and the flood of the working population to the cities in order to find employment opportunities. 2. Government action into population policies and the overall infrastructure of the country. 3. Family planning and education into contraceptive use were the key aspects of the government’s population policy. This includes the requirement for both the partners to take a class on modern contraception before receiving their marriage license. Also, permanent sterilization for both the male and female and birth control (consisting of condoms, pills, etc) is free. In conjunction with this, developments in infrastructure, such as health care and education systems for both genders and for all social classes, aided in raising the country’s literacy rate and lowering the country’s population growth rate. 4. The empowerment and emancipation of women. Although complete gender equality has not been achieved, education and family planning have opened many doors for women in Iran. 5. The involvement of Iran’s religious leaders in the aim to reduce the fertility rate of the country, encouraging the use of all types of contraception.

(However, please note that these results are subjective to provincial variation due to ethnic and religious diversity within the regions of the country. )

There are two paths that Iran’s population could take in the future. The population can continue to decline, provided that the government continues to pursue these population policies. However, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s call for a higher fertility rate, the likelihood of this is falling. The other path that the country could take is the one that the president is calling for – population growth. But if Iran’s population growth rate begins to rise again, there are other explanations as well. They include the population momentum (therefore the population time lag with come into effect), slowed government efforts and loss of interest in the subject due to positive results and a male sex preference. It is predicted though, that the greatest changes to occur in Iran's demographics, are not of its total population but of its demographic make-up. It is projected that Iran's youth population (ages under 15) will be halved and its elderly population (ages over 60) will increase four-fold, to almost twenty-five percent of its total population. With the increase in population and the influx of people to cities, there will be environmental impacts that must be taken into consideration, specifically by the Iranian government in planning for their future development. The environmental impacts include pollution - air pollution, pollution of the water, and physical pollution of the land. This urbanization will have monetary impacts in which the government needs to plan for continued development in health care, education and other resources need by a growing urban population. With continued development, Iran's infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate and overall death rate will all fall specifically due to developments in health care. Therefore, as a result of so many influence, we can only predict and project what we believe may be to come for the population of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Images: Google Images Population Pyramids: Nation Master Population Graphs: Total Population, Population Growth Rate [|Iran: A Model for Family Planning?] [|IRAN-IRAN: Focus on family planning] [|Ahmadinejad urges Iranian baby boom to challenge west] Iran: A Model for Family Planning? The Path to Below Replacement Fertility in the Islamic Republic of Iran Recent Changes and the Future of Fertility in Iran League Table of Maternal Deaths Population Iran's Population Project Reduced to 105m in 2050
 * Sources:**