Demographic+trends

Fundamentally, the trends associated with the success of pro-natalist policies are quite apparent. At the most simplistic level, there is the obvious factor of replacement rate. If the pro-natalist policies are having the desired effect, the TFR(Total Fertility Rate) should increase to Replacement; indicating that for every two parents, there are two children to replace them.  A country that is perfectly on replacement rate would look like this (Far Right) :

//Source:// http://www.flatrock.org.nz/topics/money_politics_law/assets/boom1.jpg____  However, it is imperative to note that the scenario above is somewhat //too// idealistic. In most cases, the country’s population pyramid will display anomalies. A clear example of this would be the United States (below). Notice how the pyramid, unlike that above, harbors various deviations from the “replacement” characteristic; though the average propensity is still approximately replacement rate. //Source//: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/Uspop.svg/800px-Uspop.svg.png________ These anomalies are caused by the most fundamental aspect of the data: that it is an average. So, on average, the population tends to replace itself, although there will be times when two parents have only one child, or have three children. _ Of course, it is important to determine whether we are being too idealistic in assuming the pro-natalist policies will have an impact at all. To answer this question, one needs only to look at the scenario in Spain. One generation ago, Spain’s fertility rate was among the highest in Europe, during the regime of Francisco Franco. During his pro-natalist rule, contraceptives were banned and large families were encourages, leading to an incredible high rate of population growth for Spain. However, at the end of the Franco regime, his policy was deemed null and void; with no explicit population policy being stated for Spain. As a result, the Total Fertility Rate, possessing an inherent propensity for decline, displayed a dramatic drop; plummeting Spain into the fertility crisis it is experiencing today. _ On the other hand, France, which was one of the first countries to experience a decline in Fertility Rate, is now among the highest fertility rates in Europe. Through various pro-natalist measures, such as a 35 hour work week, France has ensured that women are able to manage their careers and domestic lives with relative ease. Relative to the general European fertility crisis, France is doing quite well; even displaying an increase in Total Fertility Rate between 1993 and 2002. Here, we clearly observe the decline of TFR in Europe. However, it has been noted that this decline is due to a lack of population policy; allowing the TFR to follow its natural course of decline. In certain cases, where pro-natalist policies are being rigorously implemented, such as France, there has been increase (1993 to 2002). Therefore, if the pro-natalist policies that European countries implement begin to take effect, it is expected that the rest of the EU will follow France’s tendency, and begin to increase. // Source: // http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9126/index1.html __ _ //**Table 1: National Averages for the European Union (Replacement Rate = 2.1)**// //Ireland: 1.99////France: 1.90////Norway: 1.81////Sweden 1.75////UK: 1.74////Netherlands: 1.73////Germany: 1.37////Italy: 1.33////Spain: 1.32////Greece: 1.29//
 * //Total Fertility Rates in Europe//**

Source:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4786160.stm

However, it is important to notice that, though pro-natalist policies most certainly instigate an improvement in countries, the effects are often quite small. While, within the European Union, the fertility rates of countries such as Norway, France and Sweden are extremely good, there is quite a disparity when comparing them to the ideal fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Of course, there are a seemingly endless number of policies initiated by these countries, in hopes of rectifying the aforementioned disparity.

For example, Sweden, through perpetually stressing gender equality, creates a scenario where women receive higher pay, the working hours of both parents are reduced, and the quality of child-care is significantly improved. Notice how, though a policy stressing gender equality is not blatantly pro-natalist, the potency of the link between gender equality and Total Fertility Rate allows Sweden to hit the proverbial "two birds" using only one stone.

Similarly, in Norway, the pro-natalist policies are more than abundant. A clear illustration of such beneficial policies is the maternity leave, where the mother is entitled to 10 months off with 100% pay. In addition, in the spirit of gender equality, the husband is fully entitled to take the leave instead of the mother. This paid leave is guaranteed by the National Insurance Act, and it dates back to 1956. Also, a specific stipulation, known as the "Daddy Quota", states that the husbands //must// take 4 weeks of leave from work for child-care; refusal to do so resulting in the loss of 4 weeks leave for both husband and wife. To "top it off", the employment rate of women has been spectacular, with 30 out of 39 women employed.

But, the crux of the argument lies in another point altogether. The unfortunate truth of the scenario may be that such "pro-natalist" policies may in fact be targeting the wrong aspect of the problem. Certain statistics experts, such as Maritt Ronsen at "Statistics Norway", state that there is hardly any correlation between family policies and Total Fertility Rate.

//Marrit Ronse states://
===//"Sweden's family policies have been at least as generous as ours. Yet their birth rates have not improved. However, Sweden also experienced a period of slack in the economy that soon led to a sharp rise in unemployment. Soon after, fertility declined from 2.1 children per woman in 1992 to about 1.5 in 1997."//===

Source:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4786160.stm

Thus, at times of economic insecurity, the power of family policies quails beneath the panic of the general populace. Resultantly, it becomes highly apparent that a mixture of economic stability and generous family policies is likely to be the best mixture; ascertaining the achievement of replacement fertility rate in the future.Nevertheless, though Norway and Sweden are below fertility rate, it is vital to notice that the rates continue to increase, though incrementally, each year. Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/en/facts/2006/norway/total_fertility_rate.html
 * ~ Year ||~ Total fertility rate ||~ Rank ||~ Percent Change ||~ Date of Information ||
 * 2003 || 1.8 || 163 ||  || 2003 est. ||
 * 2004 || 1.78 || 164 || -1.11 % || 2004 est. ||
 * 2005 || 1.78 || 163 || 0.00 % || 2005 est. ||
 * 2006 || 1.78 || 163 || 0.00 % || 2006 est. ||
 * 2006 || 1.78 || 162 || 0.00 % || 2006 est. ||

Source:http://www.indexmundi.com/sweden/total_fertility_rate.html
 * ~ Year ||~ Total fertility rate ||~ Rank ||~ Percent Change ||~ Date of Information ||
 * 2003 || 1.54 || 195 ||  || 2003 est. ||
 * 2004 || 1.66 || 179 || 7.79 % || 2004 est. ||
 * 2005 || 1.66 || 179 || 0.00 % || 2005 est. ||
 * 2006 || 1.66 || 178 || 0.00 % || 2006 est. ||
 * 2007 || 1.66 || 172 || 0.00 % || 2007 est. ||
 * 2008 || 1.67 || 172 || 0.60 % || 2008 est. ||

Consequently, it is apparent that the TFR is most certainly related to the population policy of a country, though, by no means, restricted to family policies. If there is no policy, the general tendency of the Rate is to decline. However, in areas where policies have been stipulated, there is improvement; necessitating a continuation of such policies. Thus, pro-natalist policies cause an increase in the Total Fertility Rate of a country. or region, and resultantly, a more static population that has reached replacement; albeit a long-term occurance, rather than a rapid effect.

Sources: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9126/index1.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/20/AR2007122002725_pf.html http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1584142,00.html General class discussion about Population trends http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4768644.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4786160.stm http://cynematic.wordpress.com/2008/06/30/more-kids-or-less-and-why-birth-rates-and-social-policy/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility