Demographic+Profile

=Egypt's Demographic Profile =

__**Overview: **__

Overall, statistics have shown that Egypt's demography in the last century has followed a common transition from high to low fertility and mortality rates. The total fertility rate fell from 5.6 in 1976 to 3.1 in 2005; it is evident that increases in Family Planning use has been a significant factor in this decline. During that same time period, the contraceptive prevalance rate has increased from 18.9 to 59 percent, and data show this trend was largely accomplished by an increased number of service delivery outlets. For example, the number of family planning clinincs in the public and NGO (Non Governmental Organization) sectors rose from 3,862 in 1981 to 6,005 in mid-2005, an increase of more than 50 percent. Resources allocated to family planning have also been on the rise, increasing by approximately 400 percent from 1989 to 2003. In 2004, Egypt's crude birth rate (CBR) was 25.6, with a crude death rate (CDR) of 6.4.

__**Statistics: **__


 * **CBR**: 27 per 1000
 * **CDR:** 6 per 1000 Life
 * **Average Life Expectancy**: 70 years

Egypt is still a relatively young country. With only 5% of the population above the age of 65, it is understandable that they have a low CDR of 6. The life expectancy of an average adult in Egypt is 70, which is relatively high. The vast increase in the life expectancy can be attributed to the increase of public spending by the government on health care. Since the majority of Egypt’s population is young, the majority of deaths occur due to contagious diseases. However as the country continues to develop and become more urbanized and the amount of elderly increases, it is likely that the numbers of deaths due to chronic illnesses will increase.

//*Information taken from PRB 2006 World Population Data Sheet //
 * ** Death Rate **
 * (per 1,000 total population ) ** || ** Average Life Expectancy **
 * (years) ** || ** Female Life Expectancy **
 * (years) ** || ** Male Life Expectancy **
 * (years) ** || **Percent of Population >65 ** ||
 * 6 || 70 || 72 || 67 || 5% ||

__**Fertility: **__

 * **TFR:** 3.0 children per woman

Since 1960 the average fertility rate has dropped from 6.97 to 3.29. __Reasons for decline__ include an increased age of marriage within females, a reduction in family size due to social changes as well as the increased availability of contraceptive in the private and public sector. This is a significant accomplishment however there is still much work to be done before Egypt reaches __replacement level fertility.__ Currently Egypt faces a plateau in their fertility decline but hopefully with increased family planning and education to rural areas this will soon change. Although Fertility Rates are declining, it is important to note the rise and increasing TFR in the poorer areas of Egypt which cease to help in the total declining rates of the country. It is necessary to target these ones in order to lower the total population growth rate.

__**Change of Total Fertility Rate**__
 * ** Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000 total population) ** || ** Total Fertlity Rate (TFR) ** || ** TFR Poorest Fifth of Population ** || ** TFR Middle Fifth of Population ** || ** TFR Richest Fifth of Population ** || ** Women Ages 15-49 (%) ** ||
 * 27 || 3.1 || 4.0 || 3.3 || 2.9 || 52 ||
 * //Information from PRB 2006 World Population Data Sheet, PRB The Wealth Gap in Health Datasheet and PRB 2005 Women of Our World.//
 * 1960 || 1970 || 1980 || 1990 || 2000 || 2005 || 2010 || 2020 || 2030 || 2040 || 2050 ||
 * 6.97 || 6.56 || 5.50 || 4.80 || 3.53 || 3.29 || 2.99 || 2.57 || 2.29 || 2.10 ||= 1.94 ||
 * **IMR:** 25 children per 100 live births

__**Egypt’s Infant Mortality Rate from 1950-2040 **__ //*Information taken from UNFPA Population and Reproductive Health Country Profiles, 2003 and PRB 2005 Women of Our World //
 * 1950 || 1960 || 1970 || 1980 || 1990 || 2000 || 2010 || 2020 || 2030 || 2040 ||
 * 200.0 || 179.0 || 136.0 || 107.5 || 65.4 || 36.7 || 24.8 || 18.1 || 13.6 || 10.6 ||
 * //Information taken from Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database//
 * **MMR:** 84 per 100,000 live births
 * **MMR per 100,000 Live Births ** || ** Lifetime Chance of Dying from Maternal Causes ** || **Births Attended by Skilled Personnel (%**) ||
 * 84 || 1 in 310 || 61 ||

Since there is a large number of women who are in the Birth Giving Age, it is necessary to increase the availability of contraceptive methods in order to decrease the rapidly growing population as well as the fertility rate. The distribution of contraceptives is quite evenly split between the private and public sector although a slightly higher number of women access their contraceptive from a private clinic. A difficult challenge for the Egyptian government will increase distribution through the public sector, especially in rural areas. It is noted below that the most commonly used method would be the IUD, a modern method consisting of a small mechanical device for semipermanent insertion into the uterus as a method to prevent pregnancy. This furthermore would indicate that many women want to cease from having more children in the long-term as well as be highly protected from unsafe and unwanted pregnancies.
 * **Contraceptive use: **
 * All methods= 60 %
 * Modern Methods= 58%

__**<span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">Contraceptive Use Among Married Women 15-49 (%) **__ //<span style="font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">*Information taken from PRB Family Planning Worldwide 2002 Data Sheet and PRB 2006 World Population Data Sheet //
 * ** All Methods ** || ** Condom ** || ** Sterilization ** || ** Injection ** || ** IUD ** || ** Pill ** || **Traditiona**l ||
 * 60 || 1 || 1.4 || 6.1 || 35.5 || 9.5 || 2.2 ||

//<span style="font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">*Information taken from PRB 2006 World Population Data Sheet //
 * **<span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">Unmet Need for Family Planning (%) ** || **<span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">Source of Contraceptive Supply: Public, Modern Methods (%) ** || **<span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">Source of Contraceptive Supply: Private, Modern Methods (%) ** ||
 * <span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">10.7 || <span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">48.6 || <span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">51.2 ||

__**<span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">Demographic Transition Model: **__
<span style="color: #a00e0e; font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 14px;">Egypt is currently in the Second Stage of the Demographic Transition Model. <span style="color: #a00e0e; font-family: 'Times New Roman',Times,serif; font-size: 14px;">It has as its rapid population growth is attributed to a sharp decline in death rates and a gradual decrease in fertility rates. Currently with a total fertility rate of 3.1 and a crude birth rate of 27, Egypt’s population is increasing rapidly.
 * <span style="color: #a00e0e; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 3em; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">**Stage in DTM**: (Stage 2)



**__<span style="color: #b31c0f; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">Population: __**

 * <span style="color: #a00e0e; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif;">**Total Population**: 80.4 million
 * **Population Growth Rate:** 1.8 %



__** Change of Population Growth Rate (%) **__ //*Information from the World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database funded by the United Nations Population Division//
 * 1960 || 1970 || 1980 || 1990 || 2000 || 2005 || ** 2010 ** || 2020 || 2030 || 2040 || 2050 ||
 * 2.40 || 2.23 || 2.20 || 2.31 || 1.89 || 1.91 || ** 1.83 ** || 1.46 || 1.15 || 0.89 || 0.59 ||

As seen in the table above, Egypt's population has been declining gradually over the past 50 years, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next half century. Success in doing so will cause Egypt to finally enter the Third, Fourth and hopefully Fifth Transition Model Stages, proving its development as well as its capability to naturally decrease. This would be the ideal stage for this nation since it would further supply good health care to all its citizens (lower CDR, lower MMR, lower IMR and lower TFR) but also help supply food and water supplies, education and jobs to all of its citizens.
 * **% Population <15**= 33
 * **% Population >65**= 5
 * **Elderly support ratio:** 14:1
 * **% urban Population:** 43