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What predictions do you have for the future –demographically, socially, economically, politically, environmentally?



How will China change demographically and socially in the future?
  • It has been predicted that by 2050, there would be 122 males for every 100 females.
    • This would be a problem for marriages in the future.
    • With this, China is expected to have 30 million bachelors, unable to find women.
  • Because most children in China are only children, they are nicknamed the "little emperors and empresses."
    • Parents and educators fear that China would basically soon have a working population of only spoiled adults.
    • These children would also have the huge burden of supporting both parents when they retire.

ChineseGender.jpg

[1]


What will the Chinese economy look like in the future? [2]
Arising Problems
"China appears to be at the edge of an historic demographic transition, setting the country on a path to grow old before it becomes prosperous." - Global economist Cliff Waldman [3]

  • One Child Policy slowed down population (prevented ~300m births) but introduced long-term consequences
  • National Committee of Population & Planned Birth predicts three major demographic events during next 30yrs that will hinder the economy:
    • A peak of workers entering the working-class --> labor shortages
    • A decline in population --> slower economic growth
    • A rapid increase in the age of the Chinese population --> increased pressure for migration/immigration
    • Above factors --> foreshadow aging, constrained, economically undeveloped nation after 2030s
  • UN predictions:
    • Chinese population to slightly grow until 2030 (1.46b until 2035)
    • Fall to 1.41b by 2050
    • Instead of population growth and more significant that population decline: population aging
      • Median age --> increase from 30 to 41 by 2030 and to 45 by 2050

Labour Shortages

  • Decreasing amount of Chinese people entering "workforce" --> increase in labor costs which limit economic growth and increase immigration pressures
  • UN predicts China's working-age (15-59yrs) will fall after 2010 and ultimately decline after 2015
    • Decreasing working population threatens decrease or even reversal of economic growth

Aging Population

  • 1960's Chinese people's retirement will mark the rapid increase of China's old-age dependency on the working class as China becomes a middle-income country
    • Social instability predicted in mid-2020s

Fate of the Economy

  • Controlled birth rates continue to decrease the fate of the future working population, therefore leading to the threat of increasing labour costs
  • Birth rates are not meeting replacement rates leading to a rapidly aging Chinese population which in turn threatens the economy as, demographically, most of the population will soon retire, leaving the dwindling working class to handle the growing pensions and services needed by the elderly.


200403_population.2000.gif
Shown here, a population pyramid illustrating China's population in 2000. Now, the working class of 2000 would be today's elderly, who have left behind their weight to be carried by the dwindling working class due to declining birth rates. Further predictions (below) will stage you through the aging working class of 2000.

200403_population.2025.gif

200403_population.2050.gif
[4]





How will China be politically and environmentally different in the future?


How will China change politically:

  • China is not fully democratic yet.
    • It is expected in the future to introduce democracy to stages within mainland China as a whole.
  • China has been decreasing corruption slowly.
    • It might keep decreasing slowly unless the Government deals effectively with corruption
  • In the future China will have better leaders and more educated people
    • Many Chinese people are being educated overseas, and as a result they can see the advantages and disadvantages of democracy

How will China change environmentally:

  • The environment of China has been neglected as the country concentrates on the economic rise
    • China produces huge amounts of carbon dioxide and has polluted most of the country
  • China its already starting programs that are reducing the production of cheap products, such as alkylphenols (can cause altered sexual development)
    • some times dangerous products are unintentionally produced and then released to avoy treatment cost
  • If China continues polluting the country, many people will die, especially from cancer.
    • According to the Ministry of Health, pollution has already made cancer the leading cause of death in 30 cities and 78 counties.

china-pollution.jpg
[5]
  1. ^ http://geochinaonechildpolicy.blogspot.com/
  2. ^ http://www.allbusiness.com/population-demographics/population-size-population/12963209-1.html
  3. ^

    http://www.allbusiness.com/finance/850013-1.html>
  4. ^ http://www.sinoptic.ch/shanghaiflash/2004/200404.htm
  5. ^ http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/04/linfen_china_ch.php