PREDICTIONS FOR EGYPT'S FUTURE


Demographic Predictions:


Egypt's population pyramid 2020
Egypt's population pyramid 2020



external image eg-2050.png
external image eg-2050.png



The analysis of these two pyramids and therefore predictions about Egypt's future demography can be seen on Population Pyramids page (previous page)

Social Predictions:

As can be seen by this population pyramid the population of Egypt will become steady by 2050 at around 100 million after the population momentum has subsided. This is beneficial to the country as there if the population had continued at the rate that it was going (1.83%) then there would be a much larger population and as a result a larger strain on the country’s resources, particularly: space, water and food. However, the population growth rate by 2050 is predicted to decrease to 0.59% and therefore stabilized the country’s population. The reason for this is the low death and birth rates.


Death rates decrease by 2020, due to:
· Improved vaccination and medical care
· Improved sanitation and water supply
· Food production, increase in quality and quantity


However, although the death rate is predicted to decrease up until 2020, by 2050 the death rate will actually rise, from 5 to 7.2 deaths per 1000 people per annum, between 2020 and 2050; this is due to a high elderly population and therefore many deaths.

Aging population, the disadvantages:
· Put a strain on medical care as the elderly need a lot of it, also detract medical attention from other age groups
· Use tax payers’ money for pensions
· Services needed, such as: nurses, old age homes or adjustments made in their houses
Increase in dependency ratio, therefore there are less people of work aging to look after the large amount of elderly dependants.


The crude birth rate of Egypt is projected to decrease dramatically from 25 to 13.8 live births per 1000 people per annum, between now and 2050.

Low birth rates, due to:
· Increased family planning availability and affordability
· Lower infant mortality rates
· Increased industrialization, so less workers are needed in the country
· Parents become selfish and want for material possessions (such as holidays) rather than having many children
· The increased education and independence of women, giving them a voice to choose when and with whom to get married, and when they want to have children
· Later marriages and larger spaces between children


As can be seen, death and birth rates will generally decrease by 2020 due to the Third National Population Policy. This will probably result in the following aspects improving:

Infant mortality will decrease (3 million fewer child deaths in last 25 years), due to:
· Better education and a higher status of women
· Increased availability of immunization and other medical care
· Increased quality and quantity of food
· Increased availability of contraception


external image infant%20mortality%20rate.JPG


Life expectancy will increase to 71, due to:

· Better medical treatment
· Improvement in pension programmes
· Improvement in sanitation and hygiene

If the population pyramid for 2050 is closely examined at the base it can be seen that fertility rate may actually begin to decline further, resulting eventually in population decline. This will become a problem in the very distant future, where there is a lack of people in the working age and very few births expected in the new generations, therefore a new policy pro-natalist policy may have to be introduced.

Environmental Predictions: As the urban population increases due to increased industrialization and improved infrastructure, the pollution affecting Egypt will become worse. Car fumes and dust from the surrounding desert will be the main contributors. external image 4077615790_4257f5ee46_z.jpg?zz=1 The main concerns about pollution in the air at the moment are lead, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, and with a greater number of urban migrants these levels will only increase. This could cause serious lung damage, infertility, high blood pressure, kidney problems or nerve damage. Another concern is that as less Egyptians are found under the poverty line, there are more people using carbon emitting services, such as: electricity, already since 1990 Egypt’s carbon emissions have increased by 34% and will probably continue to increase. Carbon is a green house gas and contributes to global warming which could greatly affect Egypt, because ocean levels will rise leading to the salinisation of agricultural areas as well as possibly the Nile due to contamination by the Mediterranean Sea. Renewable energy sources, such as sun and wind power are being researched by Egypt’s New Renewable Energy Authority, and this is vital in order to maintain Egypt sustainability in the future. Egypt’s air is not only in jeopardy, but also the future of its beaches and coral reefs. There is already a large trade industry in the country and the Suez Canal is used by ships to travel between Europe and Asia, and as it becomes further industrialized trade will increase, bringing more and more ships into and through Egyptian waters. The water around Egypt will suffer from pollution by oil and industrial agents.


external image Coral-Reef-Southern-Red-Sea-Near-Safaga-Egypt1.jpg

Economic Predictions:


The previously mentioned environmental effects on Egypt will also affect the economy because as the water pollution affects the oceans and therefore beaches, the beach tourism industry will decrease. Also, if the air pollution becomes too unbearable, tourists may not visit Cairo as much for the pyramids and sphinx etc. Furthermore, as Egypt investigates alternate energy sources, this requires money as renewable resources are rarely as efficient as coal or oil.

When looking at the demography of Egypt in 40 years, it can be seen that there is a high dependency ratio. This causes strain on the economically active sector and the economy may not be as successful as money needs to be used in order to care for the dependents. The elderly dependents are particularly demanding, especially as Egypt should be expecting an aging population; tax payers are needed to pay for their pensions and care which becomes a problem as taxes increase when there are a higher percentage of elderly people in the population. Then, even further into the future there could perhaps be a declining fertility rate after 2050, and therefore less children expected in the future generations causing even more of a strain on these people when they move through and become economically active, as the dependency ratio will decline even further. As services become in demand, the economy can focus less on developing technologically and being competitive with the world market.

Political Predictions:


Egypt’s government is doing well to implement the Third National Population Policy with the help of USAID and other NGOs which set up family planning clinics and provide basic medical care, such as vaccinations.


In the future Egypt will become more urbanized due to further industrialization and therefore the government will need to organize cities, especially Cairo, in order to accommodate more people. For example:

· Building high rise apartments for low income workers
· Extending water and electricity lines
· Building more public schools
· Improving roads: by widening them, resurfacing them, or extending them further into the outskirts of the city
· Building sewage systems
· Providing building materials for migrants to build a new house

Then, if Egypt becomes too urbanized and agriculture is suffering the government needs to create incentives for some people to move back out of the city in order to farm, such as: a constant salary from the government no matter what their farm produces at that time.